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Forecast Accuracy in Supply Chain Demo

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8:38 min
  1. Every supply chain decision begins with a forecast.

  2. The forecast determines how much inventory we purchase, where we position

  3. it, how we schedule production, and whether we can meet customer

  4. demand while managing costs.

  5. Inaccurate forecasts have significant consequences.

  6. Over-forecasting leads to excess inventory, higher working capital

  7. needs, and increased risk of obsolescence.

  8. Under-forecasting results in stockouts, missed revenue, and poor customer

  9. service. The challenge is that demand signals are rarely

  10. straightforward. Historical demand is often affected by promotions,

  11. one-time events, customer buying patterns, and market

  12. disruptions. Sometimes the data does not yet exist because it

  13. depends on future events. Improving forecast accuracy is

  14. not just about using a better forecasting algorithm.

  15. It is about building a reliable demand signal by combining historical

  16. demand, business intelligence, and a structured planning

  17. process. Over the next few minutes, we will demonstrate how Board

  18. supports planners in identifying forecast risk, improving the quality

  19. of the demand signal, and creating a more trusted forecast to drive better

  20. supply chain decisions. Board addresses forecast accuracy through three

  21. capabilities. First, we identify forecast risk by showing where

  22. forecast performance is failing.

  23. Second, we improve the demand signal by automatically detecting and correcting

  24. anomalies that can distort forecasting results.

  25. Third, we enrich the forecast with future business events such as

  26. promotions, campaigns, and customer activities before they become

  27. sources of forecast error. Let's take a quick look.

  28. On the Board Demand Planning homepage, the dashboard gives a complete view of the

  29. planning cycle, including workflow status, open actions,

  30. forecast performance, and how demand is performing across both high and

  31. low demand items. Board immediately guides planners to the areas that need

  32. attention. Forecast accuracy metrics, workflow progress,

  33. and demand alerts are all visible in one place without searching

  34. through thousands of products and locations.

  35. Rather than spending time looking for problems, planners can focus directly on the

  36. areas that present the greatest business risk.

  37. Let's start with forecast performance.

  38. Board presents the key forecast accuracy indicators that planners use every

  39. day. At the top, we see MAPE and bias, as well as forecast versus

  40. budget, and actual versus budget.

  41. In this example, we have a forecast bias of 19%,

  42. which tells us we are consistently forecasting higher demand than we are

  43. actually seeing. Even a 1% bias can be problematic because,

  44. over time, it can drive unnecessary inventory buildup.

  45. The regional summaries help us understand where performance differs across the

  46. business, while the bias analysis shows which product families are

  47. contributing most to forecast error.

  48. Gravel is one of the product families contributing to over-forecasting.

  49. At this point, we know where forecast performance is deteriorating.

  50. The next step is to understand why.

  51. Forecast accuracy starts with a clean demand signal.

  52. Board automatically analyzes all historical demand, identifying

  53. anomalies and outliers that do not align with expected trends or

  54. seasonality. These are shown as blue bars here.

  55. We can see several demand spikes within the gravel product family.

  56. Filtering further on gravel, which we saw was contributing to around 77%

  57. of the forecast accuracy issues, we can determine whether a spike represents

  58. true market demand or a one-time event that should not influence future

  59. forecasts. In this case, we remove or adjust the demand spike and

  60. update the baseline demand. For illustrative purposes, we will use a larger

  61. number. We save this, and the actual data updates immediately.

  62. The change is reflected straight away in the planning process, ensuring that future

  63. forecasts are based on realistic demand patterns rather than being distorted

  64. by historical events. Instead of spending hours manually searching for

  65. exceptions, Board automatically identifies the issues, guides

  66. planners to the areas requiring attention, and allows them to make

  67. corrections quickly. Forecast accuracy is not only about correcting the

  68. past; it is equally important to capture future business intelligence.

  69. Here, we see how this is achieved through new product introductions, end-of-life

  70. activities, and events planning. We will focus on events planning.

  71. Historical demand alone cannot predict upcoming promotions, marketing

  72. campaigns, seasonal events, or other customer activities.

  73. Board provides a dedicated events planning process.

  74. Planners can review upcoming events and apply predefined event profiles.

  75. For example, if marketing is planning a promotion for key gravel products,

  76. we assign the appropriate event profile here.

  77. Taking a scenario such as the World Cup, Board automatically calculates the

  78. expected demand uplift, visible here, 5% for

  79. profile two and 5% for profile three.

  80. So if we are selling 100 items per week, we would expect to sell

  81. 105, 105, 110, and so

  82. on. This approach ensures promotional demand is incorporated into the

  83. forecast proactively rather than appearing later as an unexpected

  84. forecast error. By combining cleansed historical demand with future

  85. business events, Board creates a much more reliable demand signal.

  86. With a cleaner demand signal and future events incorporated, Board

  87. automatically refreshes the forecast.

  88. Let's now look at the consensus forecast.

  89. In the consensus forecast process, all forecast inputs are brought together on a

  90. single screen. We can compare historical sales, statistical

  91. forecasts, consensus forecasts, budgets, and forecast

  92. confidence intervals all in one place.

  93. The forecast can be adjusted directly for week 42, for example.

  94. Looking at the screen, we can see a freeze period represented by the blue area.

  95. No changes can be made here as the S&OP process requires that

  96. data remain stable for execution.

  97. For week 42, however, we can show how straightforward it is to make an

  98. adjustment. We will increase the value so it is clearly visible

  99. on-screen and then save it. The system immediately asks for a reason

  100. code because every change is tracked in Board.

  101. For this example, we will record this as the promotional activity we discussed

  102. earlier. That entry will appear here, and this is where the expected

  103. demand uplift would be displayed.

  104. Every adjustment is tracked and governed.

  105. Board clearly distinguishes between editable and frozen periods,

  106. giving complete visibility into who changed the forecast and why.

  107. This creates a trusted forecast that combines advanced analytics with real-world

  108. business knowledge. What we have seen follows the same process used by leading

  109. demand planning organizations. Board identifies forecast risk

  110. through forecast accuracy analysis.

  111. It improves the quality of the demand signal through demand cleansing.

  112. It incorporates future business intelligence through event planning, and it brings

  113. everything together within a governed consensus forecasting process.

  114. The result is a structured and repeatable planning process that improves both

  115. forecast quality and planner productivity.

  116. Forecast accuracy is not the end goal.

  117. Better business decisions are. By creating a cleaner demand signal and

  118. aligning stakeholders around a trusted forecast, organizations can

  119. reduce inventory risk, improve service levels, increase planner

  120. productivity, and respond faster to changing market conditions.

  121. Board helps organizations move beyond spreadsheet-driven forecasting and

  122. establish a single trusted demand forecast that drives inventory

  123. planning, supply planning, and the broader S&OP

  124. process. The result is higher forecast accuracy, faster planning

  125. cycles, and greater confidence in every supply chain

  126. decision.

Forecast Accuracy in Supply Chain Demo

Learn how Board strengthens forecast accuracy by creating a single, decision-ready demand signal from internal performance data, external market indicators and cross-functional input. Embedded predictive analytics and AI help planners identify demand drivers and emerging risks, while scenario analysis connects forecast changes to supply, inventory, service, margin and financial outcomes—supporting faster, more confident decisions across the planning cycle.