View Full Video Script
8:38 min
View Full Video Script
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Every supply chain decision begins with a forecast.
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The forecast determines how much inventory we purchase, where we position
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it, how we schedule production, and whether we can meet customer
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demand while managing costs.
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Inaccurate forecasts have significant consequences.
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Over-forecasting leads to excess inventory, higher working capital
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needs, and increased risk of obsolescence.
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Under-forecasting results in stockouts, missed revenue, and poor customer
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service. The challenge is that demand signals are rarely
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straightforward. Historical demand is often affected by promotions,
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one-time events, customer buying patterns, and market
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disruptions. Sometimes the data does not yet exist because it
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depends on future events. Improving forecast accuracy is
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not just about using a better forecasting algorithm.
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It is about building a reliable demand signal by combining historical
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demand, business intelligence, and a structured planning
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process. Over the next few minutes, we will demonstrate how Board
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supports planners in identifying forecast risk, improving the quality
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of the demand signal, and creating a more trusted forecast to drive better
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supply chain decisions. Board addresses forecast accuracy through three
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capabilities. First, we identify forecast risk by showing where
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forecast performance is failing.
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Second, we improve the demand signal by automatically detecting and correcting
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anomalies that can distort forecasting results.
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Third, we enrich the forecast with future business events such as
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promotions, campaigns, and customer activities before they become
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sources of forecast error. Let's take a quick look.
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On the Board Demand Planning homepage, the dashboard gives a complete view of the
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planning cycle, including workflow status, open actions,
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forecast performance, and how demand is performing across both high and
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low demand items. Board immediately guides planners to the areas that need
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attention. Forecast accuracy metrics, workflow progress,
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and demand alerts are all visible in one place without searching
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through thousands of products and locations.
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Rather than spending time looking for problems, planners can focus directly on the
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areas that present the greatest business risk.
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Let's start with forecast performance.
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Board presents the key forecast accuracy indicators that planners use every
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day. At the top, we see MAPE and bias, as well as forecast versus
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budget, and actual versus budget.
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In this example, we have a forecast bias of 19%,
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which tells us we are consistently forecasting higher demand than we are
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actually seeing. Even a 1% bias can be problematic because,
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over time, it can drive unnecessary inventory buildup.
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The regional summaries help us understand where performance differs across the
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business, while the bias analysis shows which product families are
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contributing most to forecast error.
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Gravel is one of the product families contributing to over-forecasting.
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At this point, we know where forecast performance is deteriorating.
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The next step is to understand why.
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Forecast accuracy starts with a clean demand signal.
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Board automatically analyzes all historical demand, identifying
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anomalies and outliers that do not align with expected trends or
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seasonality. These are shown as blue bars here.
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We can see several demand spikes within the gravel product family.
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Filtering further on gravel, which we saw was contributing to around 77%
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of the forecast accuracy issues, we can determine whether a spike represents
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true market demand or a one-time event that should not influence future
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forecasts. In this case, we remove or adjust the demand spike and
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update the baseline demand. For illustrative purposes, we will use a larger
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number. We save this, and the actual data updates immediately.
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The change is reflected straight away in the planning process, ensuring that future
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forecasts are based on realistic demand patterns rather than being distorted
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by historical events. Instead of spending hours manually searching for
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exceptions, Board automatically identifies the issues, guides
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planners to the areas requiring attention, and allows them to make
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corrections quickly. Forecast accuracy is not only about correcting the
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past; it is equally important to capture future business intelligence.
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Here, we see how this is achieved through new product introductions, end-of-life
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activities, and events planning. We will focus on events planning.
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Historical demand alone cannot predict upcoming promotions, marketing
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campaigns, seasonal events, or other customer activities.
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Board provides a dedicated events planning process.
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Planners can review upcoming events and apply predefined event profiles.
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For example, if marketing is planning a promotion for key gravel products,
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we assign the appropriate event profile here.
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Taking a scenario such as the World Cup, Board automatically calculates the
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expected demand uplift, visible here, 5% for
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profile two and 5% for profile three.
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So if we are selling 100 items per week, we would expect to sell
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105, 105, 110, and so
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on. This approach ensures promotional demand is incorporated into the
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forecast proactively rather than appearing later as an unexpected
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forecast error. By combining cleansed historical demand with future
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business events, Board creates a much more reliable demand signal.
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With a cleaner demand signal and future events incorporated, Board
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automatically refreshes the forecast.
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Let's now look at the consensus forecast.
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In the consensus forecast process, all forecast inputs are brought together on a
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single screen. We can compare historical sales, statistical
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forecasts, consensus forecasts, budgets, and forecast
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confidence intervals all in one place.
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The forecast can be adjusted directly for week 42, for example.
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Looking at the screen, we can see a freeze period represented by the blue area.
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No changes can be made here as the S&OP process requires that
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data remain stable for execution.
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For week 42, however, we can show how straightforward it is to make an
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adjustment. We will increase the value so it is clearly visible
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on-screen and then save it. The system immediately asks for a reason
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code because every change is tracked in Board.
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For this example, we will record this as the promotional activity we discussed
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earlier. That entry will appear here, and this is where the expected
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demand uplift would be displayed.
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Every adjustment is tracked and governed.
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Board clearly distinguishes between editable and frozen periods,
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giving complete visibility into who changed the forecast and why.
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This creates a trusted forecast that combines advanced analytics with real-world
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business knowledge. What we have seen follows the same process used by leading
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demand planning organizations. Board identifies forecast risk
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through forecast accuracy analysis.
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It improves the quality of the demand signal through demand cleansing.
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It incorporates future business intelligence through event planning, and it brings
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everything together within a governed consensus forecasting process.
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The result is a structured and repeatable planning process that improves both
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forecast quality and planner productivity.
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Forecast accuracy is not the end goal.
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Better business decisions are. By creating a cleaner demand signal and
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aligning stakeholders around a trusted forecast, organizations can
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reduce inventory risk, improve service levels, increase planner
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productivity, and respond faster to changing market conditions.
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Board helps organizations move beyond spreadsheet-driven forecasting and
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establish a single trusted demand forecast that drives inventory
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planning, supply planning, and the broader S&OP
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process. The result is higher forecast accuracy, faster planning
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cycles, and greater confidence in every supply chain
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decision.