Economic Currents: U.S. Edition

Consumer resilience is real. But it is becoming more uneven.

U.S. consumers remain stronger than sentiment alone suggests.

Board’s State of the Consumer Index shows household fundamentals still sitting above their long-run average, supported by employment, spending capacity, and balance-sheet strength. But beneath that resilience, new pressures are emerging.

Energy-price sensitivity is rising. Layoff exposure is increasing. Savings buffers are thinner. And the gap between higher-income households and lower- and middle-income households is widening.

For CFOs and executive teams, the implication is clear: the consumer outlook is not a simple downturn story. It is a segmentation story.

Why This Report Matters

Planning teams are entering the second half of 2026 with conflicting signals.

Sentiment is weaker. Geopolitical uncertainty is higher. Yet spending has not collapsed, and consumer fundamentals remain intact.

The risk is making enterprise-wide planning decisions based on averages that no longer reflect how demand is actually behaving.

This report helps finance and executive leaders understand where consumer strength remains, where pressure is building, and how to adjust planning assumptions before volatility reaches the P&L.

Resilient consumers need more precise planning.

The U.S. consumer is not moving as one market.

Higher-income households continue to support discretionary categories, travel, and services. Lower- and middle-income households are facing greater affordability pressure, trading down, consolidating trips, and pulling back in real terms across categories including dining, retail, food, and beverages.

For CFOs, this makes static forecasts and broad promotional strategies increasingly risky.

The report shows why leadership teams need planning models that can account for:

• Income-level demand divergence
• Energy-price sensitivity
• Labor-market risk
• Savings-rate pressure
• Category-specific spending shifts
• Scenario flexibility across inventory, pricing, staffing, and promotions

Featured Insight: The Average Consumer Is Disappearing

The most actionable finding in this quarter’s outlook is the widening gap between income cohorts.

While the overall consumer backdrop remains resilient, the strength is increasingly concentrated among higher-income households. Lower- and middle-income households are absorbing more pressure from elevated prices, weaker savings buffers, and higher energy costs.

For executive teams, this means one demand curve is no longer enough.

Commercial plans, promotional calendars, pricing strategies, and inventory commitments must reflect different levels of spending capacity across consumer groups.