US Economic Outlook: October 2025

As the holiday season approaches, Board’s October Economic Outlook finds a rare balance: supply chains are running smoothly, inventories are well managed, but consumer sentiment is softening.

Principal Economist Natalie Gallagher outlines why 2025’s holiday demand will hinge on conversion rather than availability. While discretionary spending remains positive, it’s concentrated among higher-income consumers—creating both opportunities and risks for retailers and manufacturers.

What’s covered:

• Latest data on supply chain pressure and inventory trends
• ISM manufacturing and services insights
• Consumer sentiment and spending patterns by income group
• Scenarios for holiday sales growth and key planning implications

Understand how selective demand will shape Q4 performance—and how agile planning can turn volatility into advantage.