US Economic Outlook: May 2026

Consumer sentiment is near all-time lows, raising concerns about whether it may be signaling a recession. However, sentiment can fluctuate and does not always reflect underlying economic conditions. 

In the May Economic Outlook, Board’s Senior Economist Boyd Nash-Stacey examines three key indicators used to assess recession risk and explains what they show today. The analysis highlights how these indicators have historically predicted recessions and where current conditions stand. 

The outlook also explores how economic outcomes vary across industries and regions, and what current regional data indicates about overall economic stability. 

What’s covered:

• The three indicators used to assess recession risk
• Why current recession probability is estimated at 12 percent
• The role and volatility of consumer sentiment
• Differences in economic outcomes across regions and sectors

Understanding these indicators provides important context for evaluating current economic conditions.