US Economic Outlook: February 2026

As the U.S. economy moves toward 2026, consumer spending growth is increasingly concentrated among high-income households. Board’s February Economic Outlook explores how this K-shaped dynamic reshapes risk, volatility, and planning assumptions for business leaders. 

Rather than broad-based income gains, today’s expansion is being driven by AI-fueled asset appreciation—creating momentum, but also vulnerability if markets correct. 

In this outlook, you’ll learn: 

• Who is driving consumer spending growth today 
• Why wealth effects matter more than wages 
• Where the biggest downside risks lie for 2026 
• Which indicators leaders should monitor closely 

Why this matters:

Concentrated growth requires more agile, data-driven planning—and Board helps organizations turn economic signals into confident decisions.